gait gambit

a computational model of gait selection
Walk
G = 0.56
#1
Skip
G = 1.10
#3
Run
G = 1.17
#4
Stroll
G = 0.56
#2

Policy Landscape

Walk
Skip
Run
Stroll

EFE Crossover (Skill mastery)

EFE Component Fingerprint

EFE Breakdown: Walk (G = 0.56)

Most influential parameters: Desired arousal (flips) · Current arousal (flips) · Crowd / obstacles (flips)

Expected Free Energy Model

Each policy π\pi (walk, skip, run, stroll) is scored by its expected free energy:

G(π)=kwkCk(π)    wiInfoGain(π)G(\pi) = \sum_k w_k \cdot C_k(\pi) \;-\; w_i \cdot \text{InfoGain}(\pi)

where the cost terms CkC_k are Risk, Ambiguity, Energy, Social, Injury, and ArousaldesiredArousalpredicted|\text{Arousal}_\text{desired} - \text{Arousal}_\text{predicted}|.

The policy with the lowest GG is selected. Costs (risk, energy, social penalty, injury, ambiguity, arousal mismatch) increase GG; information gain decreases it, rewarding exploratory behaviour.

Policy Specifications

Each gait is parametrised by six numbers that feed into the EFE terms:

SpecWalkSkipRunStroll
impact0.250.750.900.15
signalAmp0.350.850.800.20
energyPerDist0.250.550.750.15
conspicuous0.200.850.650.10
complexity0.250.750.450.10
speed0.350.550.850.20

impact drives injury probability; signalAmp is proprioceptive richness (high for skip); conspicuous feeds the social penalty; complexity determines how much there is to learn.

The Child-Adult Crossover

Both a child and an adult share the same EFE equation and the same four policies. The difference is the weight vector w\mathbf{w}. A child operates with high wiw_i (curiosity) and low wsw_s (social cost), so skipping wins: it is complex, proprioceptively rich, and novel. An adult raises wsw_s, wew_e, and wjw_j, which penalises skipping enough that walking takes over. Try the Child and Adult presets and sweep mastery or normPressure to watch the crossover happen.

Notes

  • This is a toy model. The policy specs are hand-tuned, not fitted to biomechanical or behavioural data.
  • All context variables and weights are normalised to [0, 1] or [0, 2]. Absolute G values are arbitrary; only the ranking matters.
  • The radar chart shows raw component values (before weighting). The waterfall shows weighted contributions to G.
  • Sensitivity is measured by perturbing each context parameter by ±0.05 and checking whether the winner changes.

Model provenance

claude opus 4.8February 2026·first cut. builds the gait-gambit sandbox as an active-inference policy selector: four gaits (walk, skip, run, stroll) each scored by an expected free energy made of six weighted cost terms minus information gain, with a 2D winner heatmap, crossover sweep, radar of raw components, an EFE waterfall for the winner, a sensitivity ranking, and a stick-figure preview. calibration verifies that every deterministic EFE component reproduces its closed-form definition exactly, and six assumptions keep the active-inference framing apart from the hand-tuned, unit-free specifications.

Calibration

Modeling assumptions

Model changelog

v1.0February 2026
  • policy model: G(pi) = sum_k w_k C_k(pi) minus w_info InfoGain(pi) over four gaits; lowest G wins.
  • six cost terms (risk, ambiguity, energy, social penalty, injury, arousal mismatch) plus an information-gain reward, each a clamped closed form over ten [0,1] context variables.
  • per-gait specification table (impact, signal amplitude, energy per distance, conspicuousness, complexity, speed) feeding the cost formulas.
  • visual suite: winner heatmap over any two context axes, crossover sweep along one axis, raw-component radar, weighted EFE waterfall for the winning gait, and a stick-figure preview.
  • sensitivity ranking by perturbing each context variable by plus or minus 0.05 and flagging whether the winning gait flips.
  • calibration: every deterministic EFE component checked against its hand-derived closed form, reproducing to four decimals; the stochastic time-stepping is left out of the calibration on purpose.
  • framing kept honest: the active-inference equation is principled but the gait specs are hand-tuned and unit-free, and the child-versus-adult crossover is an interpretive weight change, not fitted data.