societal harm topology

counterfactual, distributed, multi-domain harm from concentrated private power
Net harm
937
Sheaf consistency
80%
Fragility
233
Scalar index
980
gross
1135
repair
129
obstruction
20%
Gini
0.17
top sector
Environment
top dimension
Tail risk
global harm vector
aggregated across all sectors
vector geometry
shape of harm, not just magnitude
sector contribution
gross (gray) vs net (lime) by local context
sensitivity analysis · scalar index
future weight
Δ1049.390
actor power
Δ771.280
discount β
Δ234.177
repair capacity
Δ-612.900
baseline: 979.526 · each parameter swept min→max while others held constant
Claude Opus 4.6April 2026·initial implementation with full damage functional, sheaf consistency, sensitivity analysis, and presets
t = 100%

The harm state vector

For each person or cohort ii at time tt, the model tracks an 8-dimensional harm state:

xi(t)=(Li,  Qi,  Mi,  Ai,  Pi,  Ei,  Ii,  Ti)x_i(t) = \big(L_i,\; Q_i,\; M_i,\; A_i,\; P_i,\; E_i,\; I_i,\; T_i\big)

where LL is life-years lost, QQ is morbidity burden, MM is material extraction, AA is agency loss, PP is political voice dilution, EE is ecological damage, II is epistemic degradation, and TT is tail risk. A higher-level capability map ci(t)=Φ(xi(t))c_i(t) = \Phi(x_i(t)) transforms this into what the person can realistically do, become, and avoid.

Counterfactual causation

Damage is not measured by looking at the world as it is, but relative to a counterfactual without the actor's intervention:

Δa(t)=XtXt(a)\Delta_a(t) = X_t - X_t^{(-a)}

where XtX_t is the actual social state and Xt(a)X_t^{(-a)} is the counterfactual under median-firm behavior. Societal violence is a difference between two trajectories of the social world.

The damage functional

The full functional integrates harm over time, across populations, with explicit treatment of catastrophic risk and institutional fragility:

Ha=E ⁣[t=0TβtiSωi ⁣(ci(a)(t),ci(t))]+λRa+μFa\mathcal{H}_a = \mathbb{E}\!\left[\sum_{t=0}^{T}\beta^t \sum_{i \in S} \omega_i \cdot \ell\!\left(c_i^{(-a)}(t),\, c_i(t)\right)\right] + \lambda\,\mathcal{R}_a + \mu\,\mathcal{F}_a

Here β\beta is the temporal discount factor, ωi\omega_i are moral weights, \ell compares actual to counterfactual capability, Ra\mathcal{R}_a is catastrophic risk, and Fa\mathcal{F}_a is institutional fragility. A scalar index is derived from this functional only after vector aggregation, repair adjustment, and obstruction correction.

Sheaf coherence and obstruction

Society is covered by overlapping local contexts — labor, housing, politics, media, environment, supply chains. On each patch UαU_\alpha, a local harm section F(Uα)\mathcal{F}(U_\alpha) can be constructed. The sheaf condition asks: do local sections glue into a coherent global section?

When they do not, the obstruction lives in H1H^1 of the cover — a topological measure of how accountability structures fragment. Offshore ownership, subcontracting chains, and platform opacity create loops where local responsibility exists everywhere but global responsibility is hard to assemble.

Moral weights and incomparability

There is no morally neutral weighting. The framework makes this explicit: different ethical commitments yield different weights. Rather than forcing all harms into R\mathbb{R}, the full theory uses a partially ordered harm space QQ where some harms dominate others, some are incomparable, and the residual xyx \Rightarrow y represents the minimum repair needed.

Open questions

The hardest problems are not technical. What is the baseline — no actor, a regulated version, a cooperative alternative? Should future generations get equal weight? Is consent meaningful under structural dependency? How do you model epistemic harm mathematically? These are the true foundations, and the playground makes them adjustable rather than hiding them.

v1April 2026
  • 8-dimensional harm vector with capability-approach grounding
  • 6-sector local-to-global aggregation with sheaf consistency
  • cosine-similarity-based coherence and obstruction metrics
  • damage functional with temporal discount, future weight, repair capacity
  • 4 presets: baseline, platform monopoly, extractive finance, fossil incumbent
  • sensitivity analysis across all global parameters
  • parameter sweep with multi-metric tracking
  • narrative generation comparing current state to baseline